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England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|