Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”